Justin Should Leave, But Probably Won’t

I had a unique and very moving personal glimpse of his normally controlled father’s feelings bursting forth as we walked together to his final news conference following his 1979 defeat. I looked over and he was crying! Clearly facing the end of the position that had been so important to him for so long deeply affected him.

This must be the kind of reflection that keeps his son awake at night. The part of the job he loves and is good at - retail politics, glad-handing, charming a crowd – he can still do it. Like his dad, he loves the perks of traveling abroad in his own plane and hob knobbing with other world leaders. He is now a senior member of the club. Give up all that? Plus, he loves a good fight and is convinced he can beat Poliviere and prove everyone wrong who thinks he is past his prime.

On the other hand, he must be deeply affected by the constant bombardment of criticism and blatant hate that rains on him in the digital age from a gazillion negative voices, not to mention the ferocity of protests that dog his public appearances.

The intense polarization between the parties and its manifestation in the disgusting accusatory tone in the House to which Justin himself contributes his share can’t be shrugged off. Dead are the “sunny days” of the year or two after the 2015 election, and he must regret that deeply. They are not coming back.

Nor is the convincing Trudeau of the daily TV appearances during the pandemic. He is now overexposed, fronting unconvincingly the slew of policies which attempt unsuccessfully to boost the Liberal’s popularity. He seems to be unable to face his own overstatement of his endless claims to be working for the middle class and his defaulting to “we are continuing to…” in answer to just about any question about helping Canadians cope with dire economic times. He must know that his government cannot really significantly improve the sad economic situation that so many face. His real accomplishments, like the generous child benefit, are far behind him. Boasting about things done many years ago simply does not fly.

The other facet of his life that must cause him sadness is his marriage. It certainly affected his father after we announced the separation from Margaret in 1977, his funk lasted many months. There is some evidence that Justin too was in funk in the slowness of he and his people addressing the economic situation affecting so many Canadians in the very time after his wife left him and took up with somebody else. The talented opinion columnist Andrew Phillips in the Star recently wrote, “…maybe the ‘boss’ lost focus at exactly the wrong moment for the future of his government and party.”

So, the “I’ve had enough and need to focus on my kids” argument must weigh on him. And as I wrote some time ago, the worst scenario for any politician is to go into an election knowing you will lose. Is that really to be the end of Justin Trudeau? And the serious downsizing of the Liberal party with him. Or will his self-confidence, hubris and conviction he is doing the right

thing for Canada convince him to fight to the end. Moreover, many Liberals still think he is the best one to beat Pierre Poliviere. Will these factors trump all the evidence I have advanced that could have him make way for a new leader. Whatever, the decision will be an emotional not a rational one.



Stay tuned, time is running out.