What if – Some Speculative Riffs on Canada – US

The hope that a new, civilized, even polite White House attitude to Canada, and their dropping references to us as the 51st state, might bode well for negotiations following the results of the federal election. In any case, in this chaotic situation a whole new raft of speculations are fair game.

For instance, what if the much touted new comprehensive economic and security agreement with Canada could be worked out with the US? Including a free trade in automobiles and the taking down of other tariffs? Not impossible - obviously costly in terms of a likely requirement to substantially increase defense spending (already being considered by both major parties). Limits imposed on US imports of dairy products have not been met – so we may be able to retain these controls - a major US irritant. We may have to swallow others. A noisy reaction to rising prices, and the predicted Democratic re-control of Congress after the 2026 midterms may usher in a more normal White House and make it easier to re-establish more positive and cordial relations with the US overall. What a dream!

The obverse of this is that Carney – assuming he wins- will not swallow the concessions Trump requires to take off tariffs and restore auto free trade. This roadblock would hit weeks into May when the full effects of auto tariffs and other tariffs throw Canada into a recession and effectively destroy our 100-year-old auto industry. The dollar tumbles further. Our patriotism is wearing thin, and Carney’s promise of a Canada strong will be slow in coming. The promise to find alternate export markets is not bearing fruit. Ford threatens to cut his electrical exports to the US. Alberta is urged to slow oil delivery. Huge unemployment. A pall hangs over the nation. Are we really at a dead end?

A third “what if” involves a real coalition of like-minded nations against Trump’s tariffs and threats against sovereign nations. This could take the form of major international meeting of heads of state with unanimous resolutions. It might involve the UN, and obviously the World Trade Organization, whose very reason for existence as a promoter of reducing barriers to trade is threatened. Interestingly, China’s President Xi recently gathered an impressive list of global CEO’s to discuss protecting supply chains and reacting to US tariffs. High-level international business diplomacy will undoubtedly be activated against Trump’s international tariffs. Canada is president of the G7 meeting in Kananaskis, Alberta, on June 17. Can they avoid isolating Trump in his demolition of the international trading order? Could be an important moment. Could it lead to a Trump backdown?

Canada could have an important role to play in the leaderships of an international movement even before the G7. It might just be effective after the midterms, could even lead to Trump’s becoming the laughingstock of the international community. An energized Europe, with a population bigger than the US, is key. A real Dream On? Maybe not.

There is a bit of sunshine for us in the huge 54-per-cent tariff being placed on Chinese imports to the US, as these goods will continue to enter Canada at a much lower rate. This means that Canadian Tire, for so much of its stock, and electronics stores like Best Buy will still sell much cheaper goods than available in the US. This is likely to create a boom in cross- border shopping in Canada for Americans.

Finally, and already visible in early signs, Congress may just start to fulfill its constitutional duty as a check to executive power. Again, particularly after the midterms, or even before. The dictatorial and authoritarian bent of the Trump administration is starting to arouse the basic fair-minded citizens of the US. Huge demonstrations in early April in all States may just be the beginning. Seeing students being arrested by black-hooded ICE agents, not charged and incarcerated with no due process to be deported is a blot on US democracy. US Congress people still rely on the popular vote of citizens who may distrust traditional media but still watch TV. They will also see prices of everyday goods going up. No new car this year.

As David Brooks wrote in the New York Times: “People will be outraged by the useless economic pain they (the tariffs) are causing and, more subtly, revolted by the cowardly values they represent.” And the fallacy of Trump’s actions is well expressed by Binyamin Appelbaum of the New York Times: “The president…is a careless person, smashing up things and creatures and leaving others, eventually, to clean up the mess that he has made.” American citizens are noticing this.

These historic days are just the start. A revolution is underway defining a new and dangerous role for the US in a world order he seems determined to destroy. Canada is no longer alone in baring the brunt of his disdain and economic warfare. There are dozens of nations considering how their economies will be damaged and how the world order is threatened. There will be strength in numbers.